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LIBYA (critical situation as of 26 May)

Summary points:
- Libyan government puts forth ceasefire proposal, the most serious to date
- Libya ranks high in G8 meeting agenda; G8 leaders meeting in France on Thursday

Security-military developments. Late on Wednesday, NATO conducted further airstrikes in the Libyan capital Tripoli. NATO flyers dropped in Tripoli call on Ghadafi soldiers to act responsibly and defect. Fighting between rebel fighters and Ghadafi forces broke out near the oil town on Brega.

Assessment: The dropping of flyers is one aspect of a wider psychological and media operation carried out by NATO to undermine support for Muammar Ghadafi within his own ranks. NATO officials understand that the air campaign alone will not make Ghadafi go and that a rebellion by Tripoli residents and members of security forces are more likely to provoke the fall of the regime.

Political-diplomatic developments. The Libyan government is proposing an immediate ceasefire to be monitored by the United Nations and the African Union. The proposal, which includes unconditional talks with the Libyan opposition, an amnesty for fighters on both sides and the drafting of a new constitution, makes no mention of the future role of Muammar Ghadafi. In France, G8 leaders were expected to discuss the Libyan conflict on Thursday.

Assessment: Ceasefire efforts by the Ghadafi regime are likely to be rejected outright by the National Transitional Council (NTC). However, there sure are members of the international community that believe that such offers should be considered as they could lead to a mediated power transition from which Ghadafi could be excluded. The ceasefire proposal from Tripoli, if coupled with the upcoming visit by South African president Zuma to the Libyan capital next week, could indeed be the most serious ceasefire proposal for the Libyan conflict to date. If Ghadafi proposes to step down and leave the country, the NTC could be tempted to fill the political vacuum and organize the transitional period until elections are held and a new constitution drafted. This said, the Libyan opposition and NATO members will be looking for concrete measures from Tripoli before the proposal is given further consideration.

YEMEN (critical situation as of 26 May)

Summary points:
- Poor security situation in Sana’a: clashes between army and tribesmen claim 109 lives
- Saleh forces said to be demoralized, abandon their positions; more defections expected

Security-military developments. Violence continues in the Yemeni capital Sana’a. In the western parts of the city, 28 people have been killed as a result of what the government claims was an explosion at a weapons storage facility, though opposition sources say people died following shelling by Saleh forces on residential areas. Estimates put the total number of casualties at 109 since Monday. Overall, nine government ministries buildings in the capital remain besieged by tribal militiamen responding to the orders of Sheikh al-Ahmar, leader of the Hashid tribal confederation. Sana’a’s international airport was shut down, and all flights diverted to the southern city of Aden. Later on Thursday, the airport resumed air traffic operations. Given the deteriorated security situation in Sana’a, the US embassy ordered American citizens not to travel to Yemen or leave the country immediately by commercial means. General Ali al-Mohsen, the renegade army commander, called on members of security forces to switch sides. There are reports of soldiers and policemen belonging to the Hashid tribe abandoning their positions and joining Sheikh al-Ahmar’s ranks.

Assessment: The security situation in Sana’a remains poor. Both sides engaged in the violence are using heavy weaponry during clashes, putting the lives of residents at risk. Though confrontations have largely concentrated in the Hasabah area of the capital, these are expected to spread as the fighting intensifies. An immediate ceasefire is unlikely. Several districts of the city were empty on Thursday, as residents stay home or flee Sana’a to avoid being caught in the cross-fire. Both sides are reported to have set up checkpoints in key access points.

Political-diplomatic developments. Yemeni judicial authorities issued on Thursday an arrest warrant against Sheikh al-Ahmar and nine of his brothers. Sheikh al-Ahmar declared that the struggle is only between the Hashid tribe and President Saleh, adding that the country will not be dragged into civil war.

Assessment: The arrest warrant only formalizes previous efforts by President Saleh to get rid of Sheikh al-Ahmar, whose compound has been targeted by army shelling several times this week, resulting in casualties and dozens of injured. The tribal leader is surrounded by hundreds of loyal fighters and any attempt to arrest him appears futile. Security forces under Saleh are said to be demoralized and unwilling to fight to protect him. Sheikh al-Ahmar has for long been tipped as a possible successor to Saleh, given his strong political, tribal and business credentials. Observers agree that there is little that outside powers, including the United States, can do to bring stability to Yemen. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, has a strong influence on the Yemeni political landscape and could leverage on its historic links to either bring about a mediated solution to the crisis or throw its support to the best pick. It goes without saying that a civil war in Yemen would be highly detrimental to the security of the Gulf region, and particularly to Saudi Arabia. Sheikh Hamid al-Ahmar is known to be well regarded by Saudi leaders, who might see in him a more reliable and predictable partner to work with in the fight against Al-Qaeda.

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