Description

LIBYA (critical situation as of 27 May)

Summary points:
- Western powers and NTC dismiss latest ceasefire proposal by Libya unless Ghadafi goes
- UK assault helicopters ready to operate in Libya, set ground for precision attacks

Security-military developments. NATO airstrikes bombed targets in Bab Aziziyah on Thursday for a fourth consecutive day. British assault helicopters were given the green light to start operating in Libyan skies, which could result in more accurate strikes against Ghadafi regime targets. Fighting resumed in the outskirts of Misrata. Rebel fighters to the west of this city have no plans to advance towards Zlitan, instead they are waiting for local residents to revolt against Ghadafi forces currently in control of the town.

Assessment: Muammar Ghadafi is assumed by British intelligence to be hiding due to fears of being targeted by a NATO airstrike. Other regime figures, particularly high-ranking military commanders, might also have suspended communications with field commanders to avoid NATO airstrikes on their facilities. Continuing fighting is indicative of the fragile superiority of rebel forces in Misrata. Ghadafi forces in the city’s outskirts retain the capability to shell rebel positions and residential areas.

Political-diplomatic developments. The United States dismissed the latest ceasefire proposal by the Libyan government and judged it as not credible as long as Ghadafi forces continue to threaten civilians. French President Sarkozy, who hosts the G8 summit in France, called on Ghadafi to step down. The chairman of the National Transitional Council said that any initiative that stipulates the departure of Ghadafi, his sons and other regime figures would be welcome. In a new reversal for the Libyan regime, Libya’s ambassador to the European Union defected and joined the opposition, cutting off one Ghadafi’s last communication channels with Europe.

Assessment: Tripoli’s ceasefire offer failed to generate enthusiasm among Western powers and the NTC. If the Libyan government wants to be taken more seriously, the future of Muammar Ghadafi needs to be explicitly addressed and troops should halt operations on the ground. The Ghadafi regime is currently in no position to dictate the terms of a ceasefire.

YEMEN (critical situation as of 27 May)

Summary points:
- Despite clashes in Sana’a, anti-government protesters prepare for Friday demonstrations
- G8 leaders call on Saleh to step down; Sheikh al-Ahmar rejects prospects of mediation

Security developments. The standoff between President Saleh and Sheikh al-Ahmar continues. This said, large after-prayer protests are expected across Yemen to demand the departure of President Saleh. Opposition protesters have branded it “Friday Peaceful Revolt”. In Sana’a, despite the poor security situation, pro-Saleh supporters will also gather in what is called “Friday of law and order”. A speech by Saleh in front of his supporters was cancelled after a tribal leader threatened to ‘surprise’ him during his appearance. The deteriorating security situation is forcing thousands to leave the capital. Residents are seen forming long queues at groceries, banks and petrol stations in anticipation of fierce battles.

Assessment: Violence could erupt once again in Sana’a after Friday prayers. No ceasefire is expected between the two sides, as al-Ahmar and his brothers are committed to force Saleh out one way or another. Mobilization of anti-government protests in Sana’a will be reduced compared to previous weekends due to the ongoing fighting. The youth movement, which has led protests for three months, appears sympathetic of al-Ahmar’s drive against Saleh but at the same time there is concern that the revolution is being hijacked by a tribal feud that has nothing to do with Arab Spring aspirations.

Political-diplomatic developments. Gathered for the annual summit in France, the leaders of the G8 called on President Saleh to sign the GCC agreements and step down to allow an orderly transition of power.

Assessment: Statements by world leaders do not longer have great resonance in Yemen’s ongoing crisis. The struggle between President Saleh and the al-Ahmar family is unlikely to end through peaceful means. The situation has become more complex, dynamic and unpredictable than it was before.

Features