Description

LIBYA (critical situation as of 28 May)

Summary points:
- Russia, concerned about its long-term interests in Libya, calls on Ghadafi to step down
- NATO airstrikes hit Tripoli for the fifth day; fighting continues in the outskirts of Misrata

Security-military developments. Several explosions took place at an army facility near Ghadafi’s Bab Aziziyah compound in Tripoli on Saturday, probably from a NATO missile. The previous night, NATO jets targeted regime facilities in the capital for the fifth consecutive day. Fighting continued on Saturday between rebels and Ghadafi forces in the outskirt of Misrata.

Assessment: Bombing of regime targets in Tripoli is clearly NATO’s strategy to destabilize and weaken Ghadafi. This comes as NATO members realize that opposition forces cannot make significant advances on the ground or hold their positions effectively. Backing up rebels from the air certainly helped them counter frequent attacks from Ghadafi forces, but such strategy was clearly not sustainable over time. It is becoming evident that the future of the conflict will depend on the effectiveness of NATO airstrikes in Tripoli more than on ground battles between Ghadafi forces and rebels.

Political-diplomatic developments. Russia is now calling on Muammar Ghadafi to step down, and has plans to send an envoy to Benghazi to try to mediate and augment Moscow’s leverage on the Libyan conflict.

Assessment: Though Russia has been critical of NATO’s air campaign in Libya, particularly airstrikes in Tripoli, the shifting of its position vis-à-vis Ghadafi shows that it does not want to be sidelined from current international coordination. It also responds to Moscow’s desire to be more NTC-friendly and prepare for a post-Ghadafi scenario in which Russian interests are safeguarded.

YEMEN (critical situation as of 28 May)

Summary points:
-Tribal fighters northeast of Sana’a took control of military a post; Yemeni fighter jets bombed area
-Temporary truce spares Sana’a of bloody clashes over the weekend

Security-military developments. A truce was reached on Friday between Hashid tribal fighters and soldiers loyal to President Saleh, halting at least temporarily clashes in the capital Sana’a. As part of the truce agreement, soldiers left the Hasaba area where Sheikh Sadeq al-Ahmar has his compound, and fighters loyal to the tribal leader evacuated government buildings that had been taken in previous days. Mediation between the two sides was reportedly taking place, with al-Ahmar brothers claiming they are ready to fight if Saleh chooses the path of war. Thousands gathered in the capital’s Change Square for the funerals of 30 tribal fighters killed during earlier battles. In the district of Nehm, 100 km northeast of Sana’a, fire broke out between tribal fighters and Yemeni soldiers over control of three military posts. Tribesmen reportedly succeeded in taking control of one of them, which prompted the Yemeni air force to bomb the area to dislodge them. At least a dozen people were killed in the fighting. Unconfirmed reports speak of Yemen republic guard soldiers surrendering in high numbers to tribal leaders north of Sana’a. In Taiz, large anti-Saleh demonstrations took place on Friday.

Assessment: The truce appears to be holding on Saturday. Its implementation spared Sana’a of bloody clashes, which could have been very fierce over the weekend. The arrangement shows that none side is interested in all-out confrontation. However, by briefly overrunning government buildings, Sheikh ah-Ahmar demonstrated that he holds a powerful and motivated force to stand up against the contested rule of President Saleh. Developments in the district of Nehm are evidence that skirmishes are spreading outside Sana’a and that greater numbers of tribal fighters are encouraged to expel security forces from their areas.

Political-diplomatic developments. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has demanded President Saleh to step down. GCC countries plan to bring the case against Saleh to the UN Security Council.

Assessment: GCC leaders, with Saudi Arabia at the top, are determined to pursue efforts to force Saleh to transfer power or step down. A UN Security Council resolution or statement against Saleh would further isolate him and likely embolden forces opposed to his rule.

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