Description

LIBYA (critical situation as of 29 May)

Summary points:
- NATO airstrikes in Tripoli maintain pressure on regime; fighting continues across western Libya
- Libyan regime rejects G8 calls for
Ghadafi to step down; only open to African Union initiatives

Security-military developments. NATO officials declared that an airstrike early on Saturday knocked down the guard towers of Ghadafi’s Bab Aziziyah compound in Tripoli. Fighting between rebels and forces loyal to Ghadafi were taking place in various locations in western Libya, particularly to the east of Misrata, in the town of Tawargha, as well as in the vicinity of Zintan and Yefren, where both sides struggle to achieve territorial gains. Local populations are said to be suffering from indiscriminate shelling from Ghadafi forces, electricity cuts and low fuel supplies.

Assessment: Though Ghadafi is assumed to be hiding, airstrikes on his compound still have a profound psychological impact, as they highlight the vulnerability of the regime. NATO member states hope that Tripoli residents and members of security forces will seize the opportunity to rise up against the leadership and precipitate its fall.

Political-diplomatic developments. Libyan government sources claim not to be concerned by calls from the G8 for Muammar Ghadafi to step down, adding that only ceasefire initiatives from the African Union will be considered by Tripoli. At the same time, however, news emerged that the Libyan government and British ‘citizens’ are holding secret talks in the Tunisian tourist resort of Djerba. On Monday, South African President Zuma arrives in Tripoli for discussions, including possible exit strategies for Ghadafi.

Assessment: While there are no doubts that diplomatic efforts are underway to reach a ceasefire or even the negotiated departure of Ghadafi, it is still too early to judge the chances of success of these initiatives. What is sure is that Ghadafi is internationally isolated, except for support coming from some African leaders with little diplomatic leverage. His chances to remain as leader of the country are currently very thin, a reality he most probably understands. In these circumstances, the regime will certainly aim to ensure that Ghadafi himself can retain some dignity in the event of his departure (no arrest or prosecution) and that the structures of the regime are not completely dismantled. Individuals in Ghadafi’s entourage might be weighting their options: if an understanding is reached to transfer power, some of them might find a place in a post-Ghadafi arrangement. However, if they stick to power and the regime is defeated, their future will be much more uncertain.

YEMEN (critical situation as of 29 May)

Summary points:
- Saleh and Sheikh al-Ahmar failed to reach a truce, but clashes in Sana’a decreased over weekend
- Unconfirmed: 300 Al-Qaeda operatives said to have seized the coastal town of Zinjibar

Security developments. Saturday evening, sporadic fire could be heard in Sana’a. Government security forces are currently well positioned across the capital, guarding government facilities, the airport and the residences of key regime and ruling party figures. Checkpoints have been set up in most of Sana’a’s main roads. On another matter, around 300 Al-Qaeda operatives claim to have taken control of the coastal town of Zinjibar, near the port city of Aden, after fighting off local security forces. A brigade of the Republican Guard is said to have defected in the southern city of Damar, following calls from Sheikh al-Ahmar for members of elite security forces to turn their back to Saleh.

Assessment: Developments in Zinjibar are worrying but not groundbreaking. Al-Qaeda has long had a strong presence in Yemen’s southern provinces and towns are often overrun and weapons seized by AQAP militants. If confirmed, this is likely to play into the hands of Saleh, who claims to be the only one capable of countering the threat of Al-Qaeda in Yemen. However, to Saleh detractors, claims that Al-Qaeda is taking over towns in southern Yemen is a fabrication by the regime to cling on to power.

Political-diplomatic developments. Conflicting reports from Yemen now affirm that government buildings in the Hasaba neighborhood continue to be in the hands of militiamen loyal to tribal leader Sheikh Sadiq al-Ahmar, and that no temporary truce has been reached between the two sides. According to Saudi TV, GCC chief Zayani is due to return to Sana’a on Sunday or Monday.

Assessment: Even if both sides claim not to have agreed on a truce, the fact remains that clashes in Sana’a have largely decreased over the weekend. The tribal uprising appears to be spreading outside the capital and this is encouraging members of security forces to defect. Tribal allegiances are very important in Yemeni society. Calls from the tribe confederation leader al-Ahmar for people to stand up against Saleh might severely compromise Saleh’s attempts to remain in power.

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